Clan politics will play a big role in West Mugirango parliamentary race. Candidates are traversing villages on weekends, attending funerals, fundraisers and even church services to woo voters for advance support before the elections to happen on a year's time. I take a brief analysis on the chances of the candidates winning or losing the hotly contested position. The dynamics of the contest took a different turn last year after the incumbent, Dr James Gesami announced his bid to vie for Nyamira County gubernatorial race which did let the contest remain between 3 serious contenders, Steve Mogaka, Dennis Anyoka and Charles Mochoge several other participants.
Starting from Charles Mochoge who lost the seat to Dr Gesami in the last election. He comes from Bosamaro a clan known of their 'selfish' voting pattern in the past. Mochoge is banking on votes from his backyard that we saw him recently try to consolidate and bring together the decision makers from the area in an infamous 'BOSAMARO DECLARATION' which was held at WaterPark hotel early this month (August ). The declaration failed. Hon Makamara, who although considered a lesser superior candidate for Bosamaro, due to his perceived betrayal to Obwocha is gaining momentum and will split the Abasamaro Votes. Mochoge will lose it at this point because for obvious reasons. He was seen initially by Abasamaro as their political saviour. He has over the last five years proved to be mischievous and OMOKORA.
Word has it that he has previously been called on phone by his neighbours in Nairobi, who required urgent accommodation but he told them that he was out of the country. While contemplating what to do, Hon Mochoge walked out of his office and his neighbours got surprised to see their own Mochoge walk out of his office, a few minutes after he had informed them that he was out of the country. He has been discovered as untrustworthy and incapable of leadership. That is why Makamara who was initially viewed as a traitor to Abasamaro is getting the support of the few Abasamaro whom Mochoge has lost. He may now get about 4,000 votes up from his last 2,000 votes. He has no support anywhere else, not in Bogichora, not in Bonyamatuta, not within Keboye, where Hon Anyoka and Hon Kemosi comes from.
With a possibility of the clan voting for someone else, they won't obviously vote for Steve Mogaka because he's also part and parcel of the 'sin' Mochoge is being crucified for. That is how Dennis Anyoka gets his way to Bosamaro, putting in mind that people from the area are slowly tuning to his dance because of the closeness he has had with them. For him taking the bull by its horns and gone sat down with the people all over the constituency in a one on one engagement other instead of the famous populism politics of funerals, he stands high chances of having the bite lie to his end. Hon Anyoka is the first '' Outsider'' to ever go look for votes on Bosamaro. Again coming from Chache, where Abasamaro have always received votes from, he has been warmly accepted by Abasamaro. Take my word to the bank and cash it. Anyoka will enter the Guiness book of records as the first outsider to beat Hon Makamara in his home. Abasama have come to like him because of his honesty. Many won't see his movement. But he is moving smartly within Bosamaro.
With Hon Steve Mogaka banking on Bonyamatuta block. The people of Bonyamatuta aren't going to let the Governor's seat go at the expense of him a member of parliament. With him to have vied before and lost twice to Hon James Ondicho Gesami complicates matters that people have already had too much of him in the ballot. Hon Dennis Anyoka Moturi already enjoys support from his home base putting in mind that his clan doesn't want to relieve power they already have. Anyoka comes from Chache is viewed as a possible trade off -politically with Abanyatuta. Hon Steve Mogaka who enjoys a big name in West Mugirango might be the one who will be hit most in the negative way if clan politics take charge as planned. He is likely to serve as the sacrificial lamb, at the expense of Nyagarama retaining his seat, similar to what happened to him in 2013.
Hon Dennis Anyoka clearly ahead the two because for him he can be sellable anywhere in the constituency. He stands a high chance to be elected of elections were held today. He comes from Chache. A place where everyone has been getting votes previously. He has succeeded to make Chache people get recognised. They have about 15,000votes. He is part of the larger Bogichora clan who feel that they deserve to retain the seat since it was not time for Dr Gesami to let the seat go. Infact after Gesami's exit, Hon Anyoka remained the favorite to all in Bogichora. He beats Hon Kemosi here, who is largely viewed as having fought Gesami and is a "son" to Dr Gesami, who is now vying as a Governor. Dr Omboga trails as a man not capable of saying a word. He has never openly declared his candidature. Both Dr Gesami and Hon Kemosi are Abanyamoro, within Bogichora. Dr Omboga is Omonsagara, where Hon Onyancha J(RTD) hails from, who is vying as a governor and a darling to his people, Abansagara. Note that abasagara are the largest within Bogichora.
My one cent opinion....Despite having candidates who enjoy big names like my good friend Hon Steve Mogaka, Hon Anyoka will be the man to beat. History has it within west Mugirango that the first timer is always the bone who becomes an Mp.
[ Views compiled based by statistics and research I've done in the entire constituency, in the past one month. Listening and knowing what opinion shapers and power brokers are saying ]
By Generali Osumo Jnr